Sasha vs. Sasha

In what will become a running segment during the regular season, today marks the debut of ‘Sasha vs. Sasha’, and in-depth competition between The Alexs, Ovechkin and Semin. Some of the competitive categories will be your standard statistical fare, while some will be up to my discretion (and completely off the wall).

We're calling it 'Sasha vs. Sasha'.

Today, we’ll look at something real: who scored their goals against better defensemen?

Trying to quantify every defenseman in the NHL is a tough task. I chose to go with 'Goals Against On-Ice Per 60 Minutes' DIVIDED BY 'Quality of Competition +1'. This brings negative values of QUALCOMP to a positive baseline that is <1. When GAON/60 is divided by this value, you see an adjustment up if the value is <1. It’s probably not the best way to evaluate a defenseman, but it works. We’ll call it GA60/QUAL. Here’s what I found.

Breaking down the defensemen on the ice for each of the Alexs’ 90 goals scored and using their GA60/QUAL, we come up with an average GA60/QUAL of 2.48 for Ovechkin and 2.71 for Semin (the lower the value, the better the defenseman). Using the standard deviation of the entries and grouping them by frequency, we come up with the following graph:

Clearly, Ovechkin is scoring against better defensemen (his curve shifted slightly to the left of Semin’s) while Semin is taking advantage of less effective defensemen (his curve extending far to the right, even though he scored 10 fewer goals). Obviously, Ovechkin was usually skating against a team's #1 defensive unit while Semin was attacking against unit #2 (and obviously Ovechkin is the 'Superstar' of the two).

But the fact that Semin was able to capitalize against the weaker defensemen in the league is also important, as those are the match-ups a good player/team needs to exploit (especially if your #1 player is seeing tougher defenses). Clearly both players have thier respective roles, with each one producing when called upon.

I'm scoring this one in Ovie's favor though. It's tough to deny the left side of the curve.

Shots

This weekend, I had the honor of helping out at the Leap Towards a Cure Tournament/Event held at The Gardens Ice House in Laurel, MD. Before I go on, I’d like to commend everyone who helped organize or contributed to the event, as it was a spectacular tribute to our dear Mrs. 'Froggy' Henderson.

 

Last Christmas, I was given a radar gun by my father-in-law (thanks Marty!) which I’ve used several times in coaching. It’s proven especially helpful in teaching little kids about the differences between wrist, snap and slapshots (because EVERY kid wants to take slapshots). On Saturday, the gun became part of a fun game of one-up-manship between just about every hockey player in the state of Maryland.

 

I got to sit myself down behind a regulation-sized net while dozens of adult league players, and quite a few kids, shot hundreds of roller hockey pucks my way while I clocked them.

 

45
60
55
72
26

 

The shots came in all shapes and sizes (and velocities). There were some old, wooden Sherwood PMP 5030 sticks (Paul Coffey pattern, of course) at the station and nearly everyone who used one went running to their car for their own expensive composite sticks, convinced that they ‘can shoot harder than 52!’ A goalie showed up and, using one of the old wooden sticks, fired one 83mph… I unofficially declare him the winner. Alas, the best anyone in attendance could manage was 84mph (with a roller hockey puck, which is ~4mph higher than an NHL puck).

 

84

 

Which got me thinking about those NHL players who can fire the puck over 100mph and the players that block those shots. I’ve been hit with pucks fired from some of these adult beer league players and they definitely hurt. Those shots are in the low 80s. Adding 20mph to that, I can’t imagine doing what a shot-blocking NHL player does. It’s insane. I know they get paid well for it, but still.

 

So cheer when someone slides all-out to block a shot. It’s probably a lot harder than you think.

 

New Coat of Paint

In this off-season of trades, free agency and arbitration hearings, there haven't been as many goaltenders changing teams/signing deals as I hoped. I love it when goalies move around, since that means new pads and more importantly, new masks.

With that, here are my suggestions for some new masks for some NHL goalies.

With Jaroslav Halak gone, this paint scheme pretty much sums up Carey Price this coming season.

One thing is for certain: with this mask, Semyon Varlamov will never get hit in the head with a puck...

This mask fits a number of goalies this off season.

Then, of course, there's Antti Niemi's new mask.

Conditioning

With the talk of the town recently being Albert Haynesworth's lack of conditioning, I got to thinking about the conditioning of hockey players. Hockey is all about sprints, stops and starts. A typical NHL shift IS the conditioning test Haynesworth failed: 300 yards worth of 25 yard sprints in 73 seconds. Haynesworth is a defensive lineman, the overweight goalie of the football world; they don't do sprints. They're compact in their movements. And they always, always, look gassed.

Remind you of anyone, Caps fans?

I have been fortunate enough to witness the conditioning hilarity that is Dmitri Kugryshev at Caps Development Camp. To be a legitimate NFL or NHL player requires tons of hard work, some skill, and elite conditioning and dedication to becoming better.

Just don't make them do sprints. Ever.

Taking a Stance

Much of Caps Nation has been clamoring all off season for moves to shore up some perceived holes in the current (on paper) line-up. At the top of that list are the need for an experienced defenseman and a second-line center.

Unlike some, I'm comfortable with the defensive corps as it stands. The influx of youth this coming season will no doubt cause some growing pains, but I have hope that the doubters will be silenced by solid play by #s 27 and 74.

Addressing the 'hole' and 2C, and GM George McPhee's stance that he's finished shopping, lets look at what's left on the shelf for a minute. I count 17 unrestricted free agent 'centers' on the market (minimum 100 NHL games). Of that 17, 5 are under 30 years of age, 7 are age 30-34 and 5 are 35+. The average career games played for the group:

• <30: 371
• 30-34: 689
• 35+: 848

It's a list long on experience but short on high-level, high skill players. The two most productive players on the list both skated in DC last season (Morrison, Belanger), both of whom fall into the 30-34 years old category. The group as a whole has an average salary of $1.2M last season, making them very affordable. But second line centers for the Washington Capitals? Not really.

You could maybe make a case for Kyle Wellwood and Mike Comrie (young, affordable, shown flashes of talent in the past), but they have proven to be chronic underachievers who make headlines more for weight issues and celebrity girlfriends than for playing hockey.

But looking at the options McPhee has in-house, it's easy to see why he's not keen on putting anyone in the shopping cart yet.

• Tomas Fleischmann - With a full season at C, he could become more comfortable in the middle.
• Brooks Laich - He has experience in the middle and could step in with success. Plus, he's not afraid to play smart defensively as well.
• Marcus Johansson - Tons of upside. While he was sometimes unimpressive at Development Camp, he also wasn't skating with Alex Semin and Brooks Laich, who will certainly make him look better.
• Matheu Perreault - In his limited time in DC, he won over scores of fans with his skill and hard work. He's fast enough and savvy enough to anchor the position, even though some question his size.

For some reason, I think one of the in-house options will prove to be the overwhelmingly smart pick. For one, you wouldn't have to give up a roster spot for a full season when one of the youngsters could be ready mid-year. Secondly, you already have all of these options at your disposal at a moment's notice.

We'll see how things shake out at Camp this fall!

June 16, 1998

This Thursday at 8:00pm, the NHL Network will air another game in its "Raising The Cup" series, which highlights the Stanley Cup clinching games from the last 35 years. Tonight, I'm watching the Devils sweep Detroit and win their first Stanley Cup with I can't believe I shook his freakin' hand Claude Lemieux winning the Conn Smythe.

But this Thursday will be something else entirely. It will mark the first time I've been able to watch Game 4 of the 1998 Stanley Cup Finals. It's the first time I've allowed myself to watch Steve Yzerman hoist The Cup on Verizon MCI Center ice. I'll have to watch Doug Brown and Martin LaPointe and woop woop Larry Murphy score on Olie Kolzig. I'll have to witness Chris Osgood holding his arms in the air as the clock counts down to zero. I'm really looking forward to watching.

(What?)

You see, I want to see all of those things if it means I can see Brian Bellows score. If it means I can watch Olie at the pinnacle of his career. If I can see Ron Wilson coach his heart out. If I can watch that team just one more time. It was a fun team; a team built for playoff hockey and the closest any Caps team has ever come to the prize. As a Caps fan, I'll be a bit saddened that it didn't end the way it should have. But as a Caps fan, I love watching that team.

As a hockey fan, I'll look forward to seeing Vladimir Konstantinov, just one year removed from the horrific limo accident that nearly killed him and ended his career, holding The Cup once again. Moments like that don't happen much in professional sports and while I hated the Detroit Red Wings that summer, I couldn't help being a little happy for the spirit of 'team'.

So on a Thursday in August, the clock will be turned back to June 16, 1998. It should be a good evening.

Bobblehead Versatility

I know, it's been over a week since the Inova Blood Drive featuring John Carlson, but I wanted to commend all the fine men and women at Inova Blood Donor Services for what was the finest, most efficient and friendliest blood drive I have even been a part of. Obviously, I'd also like to thank my fellow Caps fans and John Carlson himself for turning the blood donor center the perfect shade of blood Capitals red.

I would also like to thank whoever created the John Carlson bobblehead for the event. The USA USA USA!!! one-knee goal celebration pose if perfect for the young rookie.

Perhaps more awesomely, the stick that comes with the bobblehead is removable, which allows you torecreate some other great goal celebrations. Such as:

Riding The Stick

The Flaming Stick

The possibilities are endless.