No Nyls. Now What?

With word dropping this afternoon that Michael Nylander is most likely going to Russia, the big question is "What does that really mean?" Well, it's two fold. 1) We get to use the roster spot he's been occupying to carry another player that could actually, potentially, play for us. 2) With his cap hit gone, there is the ability to go after another player in a trade, claim someone off waivers or sign a free agent. In the long term, Nylander's departure opens up space to sign Backstrom and Semin to extensions this off-season.

So, again, what does that mean? Chris Chelios at the league minimum? Brendan Shanahan? PETER FORSBERG? Sorry, probably not. Going after an unrestricted free agent around the trading deadline? Possibly. Opening up the possibility of bringing an Alzner or Carlson type up for a cup of coffee? More likely.

Honestly, I'm not sure you notice any real changes now that Nyls is gone. It opens up possibilities, but I doubt anything happens of substance.

Thoughts on the Game: Florida, 11/7

Ok, so I'm super late is posting this and it's short. Sue me.

-Go Go Perreault! Not only did the kid get his first NHL goal, but he executed a perfect 'knee-down, fist pump' celebration that Ovie would be proud of (if I recall, that's the same celebration Alex pulled after his first goal). Many more young man. Many more.

-I read on Japer's Rink that Q "blocked a shot with his ribs in the 1st, broke his nose in the 2nd and scored in the 3rd." Urge to buy a toddler-sized #53 jersey growing...

-Once again, WTFD, at least through 2 periods. I guess I must be missing something about Bruce's system...I can't understand why, with the lack of speed on defense and the opponent's tendency to forecheck us them hard, the Caps' forwards start the breakout at the red line. It seems inevitable that our D will bobble the puck and either lose it or simply throw it hard-around. Unfortunately, when they do, there is never anyone on our side of the blueline to get it. A simple '1 deep, 2 high' forecheck and it's an instant 3-2 in the defensive zone.

-Semin: please do something. I know you're hurting. But you are way better than this. Simplify, simplify, simplify.

-Fleischmann has found 'it', and it certainly doesn't look like some 'taking advantage of Ovie's absence' production. Bruce has always put more faith in him than I thought he deserved. This season, Tomas has shown why Bruce is so very good at what he does.

-Finally, this went along with another Japer's Rink post about Caps Forward Prospects. Learn the name Marcus Johansson (and watch the videos!!!). If he keeps progressing, he could be very similar to Backstrom soon...

Varly and Karl

So last year, two crazy kids from MD decided to get Caps jerseys. They deliberated hard and settled on a #27 and a #40: Alzner and Varlamov. The decision was based on a trip that summer to the Capitals' Development Camp and the realization that "these guys are really, really good." The jerseys arrived sometime in January of last season; late Christmas presents for them both.

Then the jerseys made their way to Verizon Center. Over a string of 4 games, the jerseys proved to be a curse: if the player on the jersey didn't play, the team lost. Toronto, Colorado...the worst teams in the league were beating us at home, all thanks to our new jerseys (I'm being tongue-in-cheek here people...we obviously have nothing to do with the product on the ice and I know it).

Then came the 2009 Playoffs. After a terrible Game 1 against the Rangers, I showed up to the game in a Caps sweatshirt only to find that Varly would be starting Game 2. NOOOO! A 2-1 loss later, and Superstitious Me was convinced I was at fault. I wore my jersey for every game from then out. A game 5 shutout. An amazing Game 7 win. After the game, one fan 4 rows behind us piped up: "VARLY!!!" I turned around. "I saw you with that jersey at Game 1! You KNEW SOMETHING! YOU'RE AWESOME!" I'd never stopped a puck, but I got "Dude, nice jersey" and "WHERE DID YOU GET THAT"'s from dozens of fans.

Meanwhile, my poor wife's #27 sat quietly in the closet. Karl had been called up for the playoffs just to sit in the press box. Upon his return to Hershey, he got a concussion and missed several games. Fortunately enough, we got tickets to a Calder Cup Final's game and she got the chance to break out the Alzner jersey and have it on for a critical game Game 4 victory. As Hershey went on to win the Calder Cup, we both knew that our jerseys had both seen wins for our players and the Curse was over. A pre-season win reinforced that belief.

Since then, Varly has started a few early Caps games to mixed results, but Karl has been down in Hershey, unable to break the Caps logjam at defense. We're both eager for the two teammates to reunite in DC and prove our jersey decisions correct. For those of you looking for the next 'cool' jerseys, my I recommend the following names: Carlson and Perreault. Maybe a Wilson or Della Rovere.

Or maybe an Alzner or Varlamov...they're still cool.

Thoughts on the Game: NJ, 11/4

Well, I missed last night's game thanks to a totally worthless informative meeting down at the rink last night (if you say '6:30', don't mean '8:30'). I will comment on a couple things I read from the game.

-The Toe Drag Monster was out last night. 3 minor penalties and a benching for Afinogenov Semin? He's in a contract year...given the opportunity, if they charge the same $, would you pay Kovalchuk over Semin? (The correct answer is 'YES!')

-Reader Scott Tweeted yesterday "You know I love the short guys" in response to Perreault being called up. First game for the kid, 2 assists. Said J.P. in his post-game write-up: "His saucer pass to Tyler Sloan was a thing of beauty, and his effort on the six-on-five goal (in Semin's place, to boot), was stellar." Mark my words: this guy's hands, speed, hockey-sense and vision have all the markings of a St. Louis-type player. He's gonna be really, really good, and sooner than I thought.

-Hats off to Varly: Last night was his first loss in regulation. Looking at my handy 'Varly Tracker', that drops him to a .76 career regulation winning % (.66 overall).

SUPER SEMIN...or...

There is perhaps no greater enigma in the NHL today than Washington's own Alexander Semin. Originally selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2002 NHL Entry Draft, Semin's early career showed promise before being derailed by a series of questionable decisions off the ice (a missed flight, failure to report to Hershey, missing a year due to 'military obligations'). Since then, while the product on the ice has often been a display of stunning offense, it has been interspersed with periods of 'bonehead-itis'. With Ovechkin on the mend for a while, many are looking to Semin to show his true potential.

Semin seems to be a quiet person. He prefers to play the ‘Teller’ to Ovechkin’s ‘Penn’. He’s been more accessible recently, with the influx of Russian-speaking media members assigned to the Caps (Dmitry Chesnokov), and made some news last season with his opinion of Sidney Crosby. His opinions, like his game, are distinctly Russian. His style is a hybrid of Alexander Mogilny and the Pavels, Datsyuk and Bure. His hands are super-soft, his skating is effortless, and his shot…well, we’ll get to that.

In his rookie year, it seemed like Semin would be a player in the mold of Peter Bondra; not the best passer but certainly an exceptional shooter. His second and third seasons did little to sway that opinion. But a funny thing happened last season: Semin’s passing ability went through the roof. His vision seemed to come into focus and suddenly the passes he rarely ever attempted in previous seasons were not only going tape-to-tape, but we getting him assists. His game was beginning to round out. Semin also started getting time on the Penalty Kill and showed his above average defensive skills. His knack for the well-executed take-away led to scoring chances that would normally have vanished into the defensive zone.

While Alex was enjoying a career season in all areas of his game, he was also on his way to a slightly less appealing career high: Penalty minutes per game. Late in shifts, Semin became prone to using his take-away skills more and his skating ability less. The stick penalties increased, putting the Caps down a man. Like Ovechkin, Semin started taking long shifts that his body simply wasn’t able to handle if a defensive situation arose. So far this season, those penalties have taken a noticeable drop (1.24 to .5 PIMs-per-game). Semin is currently on pace to set career highs in goals and assists and career lows in PIMs.

One other frustrating aspect to Semin’s game quietly crept up as the season progressed: his tendency to attempt One-on-One moves to get around defenders. His signature toe drag, one of the most sublime of any player in the NHL, began to be used on what seemed like every other rush down the ice. Rather than continue in a skating lane or dump the puck into the corners and fight for it, Semin began seeking out defenders and attempted to deke them. Rather than creating time and space for his teammates, Semin was being more and more selfish with the puck, even as his assist totals increased. So far this season, Semin’s take-aways are down but his give-aways are up. While he’s no longer reaching for pucks and taking penalties, he is using his toe-drag more and more frequently to mixed results.

The thing to remember about Semin’s toe drag is that it can be used for good or for evil. It is not a high-percentage move in attempting to make a defender commit. A well-timed poke check easily leads to odd-man breaks back up the ice and scoring chances against. When used to create space and separation for Semin’s uniquely amazing shot, it is a thing of pure gold.

Alex Semin almost always shoots his modified wrist shot off the wrong foot (the right foot for a right-handed shot) but the torque he generates by kicking his left foot is immense. Directly following his toe drag, Semin seems to be almost vertical, leaning to his right as if to get his stick parallel to his body. Only the toe of his stick is touching the ice and the puck is generally no more than a foot or so behind his right foot. It’s generally right at the height of the toe drag that Semin unleashes his shot: totally unexpected, incredibly hard and usually quite high. I’ve never seen a simple wrist shot break NHL glass, but Semin has done it on numerous occasions. The only problem with the shot is its tendency (since it comes directly off the toe) to fly high of the net.

Yet, with all that talent in his possession, something has been missing. Whether it’s the constant oneupsmanship of Semin, Ovechkin, and Backstrom or a general philosophy about offense, it needs to change. In the already linked article, Semin has this to say about offense:

And in Russia people like beautiful hockey, and not dump and chase. I just don't get it, why when a player is skating up the ice and no one is attacking him, he dumps the puck into the offensive zone and then chases it? Why would you do this if there is no one forechecking you? I understand that if there is someone coming at you and you don't know whether you can get past that player, then you can dump the puck, pass it or shoot. But if not, then hold on to the puck, skate forward, create a chance.

Why would you want to dump the puck and then chase after it and crash into the boards? I don't know. But that's just my opinion.

Hopefully Semin will realize that with the teammates he has, sometimes dumping the puck in and gaining numbers will lead to more scoring chances than taking the skating lane and ending up 1-on-3. In my opinion, Semin has the potential to equal, if not surpass, Alex Ovechkin. Oddly enough, all it seems is missing is the ability to simplify his game and exercise a small amount of restraint.

Will we see Super Semin, or the Toe Drag Monster?

Ovie Who?

Ok, so reports are that Alex Ovechkin is 'week-to-week' with an 'upper body strain', whatever that means. DC Puckheads are fretting about what we'll do in his absence. Fear not Caps Fans, we're set. Look at the line combos from after Ovie left the Columbus game:

Semin/Backstrom/Fleischmann
Laich/Morrison/Knuble
Laich & Laing/Steckel/Bradley
Laing/Aucoin/Clark

We're obviously missing someone for that 4th line (or 3rd line, if you'd rather have Laing down there), so insert Sloan or a Hershey call-up. (Update: or replace Aucoin with Perreault)

I like Flash's defensive ability (and, apparently, his offensive upside) on that top line. If Semin can do an Ovechkin impersonation and put shots on/in the net, everything will be fine.

For the Second line, I LOVE the toughness of Knuble and Laich (mark my words, in 5 years Brooks will be looked at in the same was as Knuble). They're all the same speed and tough to keep out of the slot.

The Third and Fourth lines are solid defensively. The PP will be hurt a bit without Ovie's shot, sure, but with Semin and Knuble out there, we'll be fine.

The Caps have built a team that has enough talent and leadership to succeed without Ovechkin. I think a .600 winning percentage is in the cards during Ovie's absence.

Thoughts on the Game: Columbus, 11/1

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Ovie's 'hurt' and everyone is worries it's serious. Serious would be if he didn't get up after he fell, or if he was slumped over on his way back to the bench. Serious is not coming back to the bench, waving both arms like a bird and wearing a suit after the game. Ovie will miss MAYBE 1 game. My bet is we see him in all his Ovieness on Wednesday.

To the notes!

-I'm not sure I've heard the Phone Booth go from 'Fedorov scores in Game 7' loud to 'Pittsburgh goes up 4-0' quiet so quickly.

-The Knuble/Laing "I bet I can keep the puck pinned to the boards behind your goalie for 2 minutes" PK was a thing of beauty. Caps fans are smart enough to know when they see hard work and rewarded the PK unit with a deserved ovation.

-Q was his typical Q: nice layed-out shot block and a prettier 'putting in the garbage' goal that SHOULD have been the game winner. No, he's not blocking shots like in previous seasons. But if you notice, teams are moving the puck away from the point side that he's playing. His shot blocking is so well known that he's dictating the direction the puck is going. Caps, take note of this and you can eliminate the harder point shots just by putting Q on that side.

-Having Flash back opens things up to interesting line combos. It was nice to see the Bradley/Steckel/Laich line back together, and Semin/Backstrom/Fleischmann put on a passing clinic early on. When Laich moved up to Ovie's spot with Morrison and Knuble, that line became the best.

-A penalty at the end of regulation? A penalty in OT? Same M.O. on the power play and same goal scored twice? Great teams just don't do these things. We're a good team, but not a great one.

-How can you let the puck get to the far side man on the PK? The Caps' defense does a poor job getting into obvious passing lanes, and an even worse job letting the D know when they have a man behind them.

-I think I'm going to stop trashing the Defense. It's getting repeditive. From now on, I'm just going to type 'WTFD' when the defense:

• Loses battles in the corner
• Panics
• Throws the puck away like a hot potato
• Makes passes through the slot
• Loses the race to nearly every loose puck
• Takes dumb penalties
• Skates the puck end to end just to turn it over (coughGreencough...)
  

-Jose, I understand you couldn't do anything about the bad bounce behind the net. It happens. But the fact that it happened earlier in the period and you just lucked out that the puck hit you instead of carroming in front means you should have known not to come out the way you did. Also, getting your stick stuck in the net? Ugh.

-It's come to the point where if Semin and Backstrom can't stop toe dragging and behind the back passing, and Green can't stop going end-to end and then turning the puck over in the corner, I'm going to lose it. Great teams make the simple play. Great teams don't try the highlight reel play.

-Rick Nash is the quietest superstar in the game. He has great hands, exceptional skating ability and a sick shot. And, unlike a lot of superstars, he's in the first PK unit fot the Jackets.

-Speaking of Nash, I'm not sure who looked worse on his goal: Green who looked like he'd forgotten how to transition from forward to backward or Theodore, who simply fell down.