Sasha vs. Sasha: Fists of Fury

At Saturday's Caps Convention, during the always-entertaining Kids Panel, the following question was asked (from Rock The Red.net):

Q: If you could fight anyone in the NHL who would you pick?

Ovechkin: [quick to answer] Semin

You know what this means... another installment of Sasha vs. Sasha!


FIGHT!



In their careers, the Sasha's have combined for 2 regular season fights. Ovechkin took on Paul Gaustad of Buffalo in December, 2006 (with 75% of hockeyfights.com users choosing Gaustad the winner) wile Semin had an infamous bout with Mark Staal of the Rangers in January of 2009 (with 48% choosing Staal the winner). And, of course, Ovechkin tried to take on Steve Downie of Tampa Bay last season, with Matt Bradley jumping in before punches were thrown. But in a head-to-head match, who would win?

 

Size: While both Alexes are listed as being 6'2", Ovechkin has a sizable weight advantage (25 lbs) over Semin. Advantage: Ovie

 

Reach: Unlike the NBA, the NHL doesn't list a player's wingspan. But with all the offensive-zone holding and interference penalties Semin gets, he clearly possesses Go-Go-Gadget Arms. Advantage: Semin

 
Footwork: Both players exhibit their tremendous foot-speed and lateral ability on the ice. Advantage: Push
 
Conditioning: Semin spends the off-season relaxing, vacationing and fishing. Ovie spends the off-season doing cardio with the ladies training. Advantage: Ovie
 
Hands: Ovechkin's short, quick release while close to opponents suggests a jabbing style boxer. Semin, on the other hand, has a large wind-up and huge, sweeping release. Ovie would tire Semin down with lots of strikes while Semin would be throwing haymakers. In a hockey fight, where you have maybe 40 seconds worth of true fight time, you simply can't rely on jabs. Advantage: Semin
 
Intangibles: Ovie's willingness to take on an established fighter such as Downie speaks to his toughness. Semin, on the other hand, has shown that he'll go Donkey Kong-mental when tested. And there's nothing scarier than an angry chimp. Advantage: Semin
 
So there you have it! Semin wins 3-2-1 in a battle of the Sashas. Granted, Ovechkin would probably be laughing the whole time, but Semin 'The Siberian Tiger' should score the TKO.

Sasha vs. Sasha

In what will become a running segment during the regular season, today marks the debut of ‘Sasha vs. Sasha’, and in-depth competition between The Alexs, Ovechkin and Semin. Some of the competitive categories will be your standard statistical fare, while some will be up to my discretion (and completely off the wall).

We're calling it 'Sasha vs. Sasha'.

Today, we’ll look at something real: who scored their goals against better defensemen?

Trying to quantify every defenseman in the NHL is a tough task. I chose to go with 'Goals Against On-Ice Per 60 Minutes' DIVIDED BY 'Quality of Competition +1'. This brings negative values of QUALCOMP to a positive baseline that is <1. When GAON/60 is divided by this value, you see an adjustment up if the value is <1. It’s probably not the best way to evaluate a defenseman, but it works. We’ll call it GA60/QUAL. Here’s what I found.

Breaking down the defensemen on the ice for each of the Alexs’ 90 goals scored and using their GA60/QUAL, we come up with an average GA60/QUAL of 2.48 for Ovechkin and 2.71 for Semin (the lower the value, the better the defenseman). Using the standard deviation of the entries and grouping them by frequency, we come up with the following graph:

Clearly, Ovechkin is scoring against better defensemen (his curve shifted slightly to the left of Semin’s) while Semin is taking advantage of less effective defensemen (his curve extending far to the right, even though he scored 10 fewer goals). Obviously, Ovechkin was usually skating against a team's #1 defensive unit while Semin was attacking against unit #2 (and obviously Ovechkin is the 'Superstar' of the two).

But the fact that Semin was able to capitalize against the weaker defensemen in the league is also important, as those are the match-ups a good player/team needs to exploit (especially if your #1 player is seeing tougher defenses). Clearly both players have thier respective roles, with each one producing when called upon.

I'm scoring this one in Ovie's favor though. It's tough to deny the left side of the curve.

It's All In The Wrists

For my money, Alex Semin possesses the hardest, most deceptive wrist shot in the NHL today. Most of the time he shoots off the wrong foot in such a way that the release point completely fools opposing goalies (and shot blocking defenders). He can release the shot in traffic, circling out of either corner, or while simply standing still. He’s even managed to score with the shot while on his knees!

Joe Sakic is renowned for having one of the greatest wrist shots in the game. From his 5’11” frame, he was able to generate immense amounts of torque and snap his wrists in such a way that his wrist shot was as hard as some players’ slap shots. Sakic’s shot was usually a normal, correct foot wrist shot delivered with loads of power.

But in today’s NHL, I honestly can’t find another hockey player to compare Semin’s wrist shot motion to. I had to cross the lines of sport into baseball to find his equal: San Francisco Giants’ pitcher Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has an odd delivery that relies heavily on applying torque to his core and uncoiling to generate arm speed. In an excellent Sports Illustrated piece, his motion is called “an engineering marvel,” a description that fits Semin’s wrist shot perfectly. Lincecum himself says that when he uncoils, “[my arm] is just kind of along for the ride." Like Lincicum, the uncoiling of Semin’s core muscles help generate arm speed for his shot such that Semin’s wrist shot velocity is off the charts without relying heavily on his arm strength.

I’ll use Semin’s 2nd goal against Ottawa as an example.

Semin circles out of the right-side corner with his weight on his left skate, striding forward. His upper body, hips and stick blade are already facing the net.

Semin doesn’t move his hands backward as he moves toward the net, tipping off his shot. Rather, he leaves his hands, stick and puck where they were in the previous frame (use the face-off circle as a reference) and skates past them.

Semin completes his stride, with his weight on his right skate, and has begun to push off with his left skate. His hands and hips are still in the same position they were in the previous frame. As a result, his trunk has already begun to torque in a clockwise direction.

Semin’s hands are STILL in the same position as they were two frames ago. He has completed the stride with the left foot and the torque on his upper body is now very noticeable.

Semin’s hands have moved slightly forward but the twist to his upper body has increased. His left leg has kicked back in order to allow for the increased torque and to begin the shot. Semin’s left leg will act as a counter-balance for the shot.

Semin’s hands have begun to move forward as his leg has begun to kick forward. His hips have opened up slightly to the left, applying additional torque to his core. At this point, Semin’s motion closely resembles that of a trebuchet.

Semin now rises up out of the shot, uncorking his upper body in a counterclockwise motion. His hands have moved closer to his body in order to put more weight into flexing his stick. His left leg has kicked out and to the left to simulate the weight transfer that would occur with a normal (correct leg) wrist shot.

Semin’s upper body continues to uncoil, his hands now moving forward to catch up. His right elbow is now bent to provide support for the flexing of his stick, now very apparent. His left leg continues to kick outward.

The shot is released as Semin’s upper body finally catches up to his hips. His hands are now moving forward and into the shot while his left leg has started to return to the ice. He has snapped his wrists to provide some extra pep to the puck. Notice the Ottawa defender leaning to the left for the shot block. A normal wrist shot would pull Semin’s body such that the shot would go off to the left. This wrist shot allows Semin to keep his body open and shoot short-side.

Semin completes his follow-through towards the net. His top (left) hand has kicked in towards his body to act as a fulcrum for the shot. The puck is already half the distance to the net. Notice the goalie has already begun to drop into the butterfly.

Semin is now through with the shot and is waiting to celebrate watching for a rebound. The release of the shot is so unpredictable that the Ottawa goalie has left his blocker high, thinking the shot is going to that side. Unfortunately for him, the puck can be seen just over his shoulder, to the right, entering the net.

Clearly, Alex Semin’s wrist shot is not his only way to score. His slap shot against Boston’s Tim Thomas from a few years ago, one-foot backhand against Pittsburgh’s Fleury last season and double toe-drag against Philadelphia this season come to mind. But this season, we’ve been witness to a wrist shot that places Semin in a league of his own. Hopefully he's found something with it, as he's used it to score more goals in the last few games before the break. I guess we'll find out in March.

Thoughts on the Game: Islanders, 11/11

It seems like everyone wants to write about Russians and Russia after last night's game. I think I'll mix it up a bit.

-Is it me, or does Tomas Fleischmann look like he finally gets it? He's going to the net hard, getting tons of quality chances and playing good defensive hockey. I know Backstrom did 90% of the work on Flash's goal, but he still had to be in position and get the shot off. The fact that he ended up in the crease after the goal speaks volumes to how his game has changed.

-I'm still thrilled with Perreault. He forechecks like a maniac and creates chances. Clark and Fehr are looking good again, thanks to his work at center. He's very calm with the puck, even when he's stickhandling around guys. Ovie is right; this kid has a very bright future.

-Theodore looked VERY weak last night. His rebound control was poor and his lateral movement was off. I can't tell if he's tired or whether his back is still bothering him, but it was clear he needed to be pulled after goal #3.

-If I said that I'd prefer we not re-sign Jurcina or Morisson, what would you think. Juice takes ill-timed penalties, is quite slow, and has been a defensive liability recently. Morisson simply thinks he's better than he is. He should not be rushing the puck up the ice, or trying 1-on-1 moves.

-While we're on the defense, I noticed 2 things last night. 1) Mike Green is getting pressured every time he touches the puck. 2) Mike Green doesn't know what to do when pressured. His passes are often very weak or of the no-look variety and he's been turning the puck over quite a bit lately. He's getting the assists, but with only 2 goals on the season, something is amiss.

-Ok, now for some Russians. Forty stood on his head. His rebound control was off on a few rising shots, but he stayed focused and played those rebounds well. Varly's been taking more shots to the chest these days, so his tendency to over-explode seems to be reined in by Irbe.

-For people who say Forty carries his glove too low: a proper butterfly for a goalie emphasizes keeping ones body square to the shot and as closed-up as possible. Carrying his glove high would lead to some more glove saves, but you'd see those 7-hole goals (above the pads & under the arms). On the one goal he allowed, the shot was perfectly placed...not many goalies have a chance at that.

-For the record, the most Heads-Up save I have ever seen occurred last night. During the shootout, Varly made a save but carried a lot of backward momentum towards the goal line. Had he not done something, he and the puck would have ended up in the net and the goal would have counted. Varly threw his arms in the air and accomplished two things: 1) his thrust upwards slowed his momentum enough that 2) when he got to the goal, he was able to push his arms against the crossbar to stop himself. Seriously, I'm sure goalie coaches everywhere will be teaching goalies that move from now on.

-Last Varly note: anyone who has questioned his focus in the past can put down their pitchforks. I think I speak for all Caps fans when I say that it was incredibly stressful watching turn after turn of saves, knowing that the next one against would mean a loss. Imagine the concentration it takes to not have the thought of 'don't mess up' repeat constantly in your head. The built up tension was released when Captain Clark scored...it seemed like a playoff OT goal rather than a simple regular season shootout goal.

-I'm going to put my coaching hat on and talk to Semin now. I'm going to focus on a few little things at a time...too much might cause some overload. First, I always coach what I call the '3 Foot Rule', which mandates that within 3 feet of either blueline, your goal is to make sure the puck either gets deep or gets out. Last night, while Alex was outstanding below the face-off circles, he turned the puck over a few times in this space (one time leading to the Islander's 3rd goal). Dancing around in that magical 3' is dangerous because your whole team is heading into the offensive zone (or out of the defensive zone, at that end). One turn-over, and it's an instant odd-man rush or breakaway.

-Semin has also said that he prefers to skate the puck rather than dump it if there's a lane or if it's a 1-on-1 situation. With his hands and shot, I'll agree with that. Recently, however, Semin has been skating the puck in when he's one-on-two or has no skating lane. I like to emphasize that a great player shows creativity within the team's system. In this case, Semin is using his creativity too much and the system breaks down.

-Finally, Semin's stick penalty woes are an easy fix. Semin has other-worldly puck handling skills and is way above average at taking pucks off opponents' sticks. His issue is he looks for the take-away every time the puck is near him. If he used his body a bit more (angling, tieing an opponent up along the boards), he'd create just as many take-aways while keeping his puck closer to his body. Semin's penalties come from reaching for pucks, so staying more compact would help quite a bit.

Thoughts on the Game: Florida, 11/7

Ok, so I'm super late is posting this and it's short. Sue me.

-Go Go Perreault! Not only did the kid get his first NHL goal, but he executed a perfect 'knee-down, fist pump' celebration that Ovie would be proud of (if I recall, that's the same celebration Alex pulled after his first goal). Many more young man. Many more.

-I read on Japer's Rink that Q "blocked a shot with his ribs in the 1st, broke his nose in the 2nd and scored in the 3rd." Urge to buy a toddler-sized #53 jersey growing...

-Once again, WTFD, at least through 2 periods. I guess I must be missing something about Bruce's system...I can't understand why, with the lack of speed on defense and the opponent's tendency to forecheck us them hard, the Caps' forwards start the breakout at the red line. It seems inevitable that our D will bobble the puck and either lose it or simply throw it hard-around. Unfortunately, when they do, there is never anyone on our side of the blueline to get it. A simple '1 deep, 2 high' forecheck and it's an instant 3-2 in the defensive zone.

-Semin: please do something. I know you're hurting. But you are way better than this. Simplify, simplify, simplify.

-Fleischmann has found 'it', and it certainly doesn't look like some 'taking advantage of Ovie's absence' production. Bruce has always put more faith in him than I thought he deserved. This season, Tomas has shown why Bruce is so very good at what he does.

-Finally, this went along with another Japer's Rink post about Caps Forward Prospects. Learn the name Marcus Johansson (and watch the videos!!!). If he keeps progressing, he could be very similar to Backstrom soon...

Thoughts on the Game: NJ, 11/4

Well, I missed last night's game thanks to a totally worthless informative meeting down at the rink last night (if you say '6:30', don't mean '8:30'). I will comment on a couple things I read from the game.

-The Toe Drag Monster was out last night. 3 minor penalties and a benching for Afinogenov Semin? He's in a contract year...given the opportunity, if they charge the same $, would you pay Kovalchuk over Semin? (The correct answer is 'YES!')

-Reader Scott Tweeted yesterday "You know I love the short guys" in response to Perreault being called up. First game for the kid, 2 assists. Said J.P. in his post-game write-up: "His saucer pass to Tyler Sloan was a thing of beauty, and his effort on the six-on-five goal (in Semin's place, to boot), was stellar." Mark my words: this guy's hands, speed, hockey-sense and vision have all the markings of a St. Louis-type player. He's gonna be really, really good, and sooner than I thought.

-Hats off to Varly: Last night was his first loss in regulation. Looking at my handy 'Varly Tracker', that drops him to a .76 career regulation winning % (.66 overall).

SUPER SEMIN...or...

There is perhaps no greater enigma in the NHL today than Washington's own Alexander Semin. Originally selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2002 NHL Entry Draft, Semin's early career showed promise before being derailed by a series of questionable decisions off the ice (a missed flight, failure to report to Hershey, missing a year due to 'military obligations'). Since then, while the product on the ice has often been a display of stunning offense, it has been interspersed with periods of 'bonehead-itis'. With Ovechkin on the mend for a while, many are looking to Semin to show his true potential.

Semin seems to be a quiet person. He prefers to play the ‘Teller’ to Ovechkin’s ‘Penn’. He’s been more accessible recently, with the influx of Russian-speaking media members assigned to the Caps (Dmitry Chesnokov), and made some news last season with his opinion of Sidney Crosby. His opinions, like his game, are distinctly Russian. His style is a hybrid of Alexander Mogilny and the Pavels, Datsyuk and Bure. His hands are super-soft, his skating is effortless, and his shot…well, we’ll get to that.

In his rookie year, it seemed like Semin would be a player in the mold of Peter Bondra; not the best passer but certainly an exceptional shooter. His second and third seasons did little to sway that opinion. But a funny thing happened last season: Semin’s passing ability went through the roof. His vision seemed to come into focus and suddenly the passes he rarely ever attempted in previous seasons were not only going tape-to-tape, but we getting him assists. His game was beginning to round out. Semin also started getting time on the Penalty Kill and showed his above average defensive skills. His knack for the well-executed take-away led to scoring chances that would normally have vanished into the defensive zone.

While Alex was enjoying a career season in all areas of his game, he was also on his way to a slightly less appealing career high: Penalty minutes per game. Late in shifts, Semin became prone to using his take-away skills more and his skating ability less. The stick penalties increased, putting the Caps down a man. Like Ovechkin, Semin started taking long shifts that his body simply wasn’t able to handle if a defensive situation arose. So far this season, those penalties have taken a noticeable drop (1.24 to .5 PIMs-per-game). Semin is currently on pace to set career highs in goals and assists and career lows in PIMs.

One other frustrating aspect to Semin’s game quietly crept up as the season progressed: his tendency to attempt One-on-One moves to get around defenders. His signature toe drag, one of the most sublime of any player in the NHL, began to be used on what seemed like every other rush down the ice. Rather than continue in a skating lane or dump the puck into the corners and fight for it, Semin began seeking out defenders and attempted to deke them. Rather than creating time and space for his teammates, Semin was being more and more selfish with the puck, even as his assist totals increased. So far this season, Semin’s take-aways are down but his give-aways are up. While he’s no longer reaching for pucks and taking penalties, he is using his toe-drag more and more frequently to mixed results.

The thing to remember about Semin’s toe drag is that it can be used for good or for evil. It is not a high-percentage move in attempting to make a defender commit. A well-timed poke check easily leads to odd-man breaks back up the ice and scoring chances against. When used to create space and separation for Semin’s uniquely amazing shot, it is a thing of pure gold.

Alex Semin almost always shoots his modified wrist shot off the wrong foot (the right foot for a right-handed shot) but the torque he generates by kicking his left foot is immense. Directly following his toe drag, Semin seems to be almost vertical, leaning to his right as if to get his stick parallel to his body. Only the toe of his stick is touching the ice and the puck is generally no more than a foot or so behind his right foot. It’s generally right at the height of the toe drag that Semin unleashes his shot: totally unexpected, incredibly hard and usually quite high. I’ve never seen a simple wrist shot break NHL glass, but Semin has done it on numerous occasions. The only problem with the shot is its tendency (since it comes directly off the toe) to fly high of the net.

Yet, with all that talent in his possession, something has been missing. Whether it’s the constant oneupsmanship of Semin, Ovechkin, and Backstrom or a general philosophy about offense, it needs to change. In the already linked article, Semin has this to say about offense:

And in Russia people like beautiful hockey, and not dump and chase. I just don't get it, why when a player is skating up the ice and no one is attacking him, he dumps the puck into the offensive zone and then chases it? Why would you do this if there is no one forechecking you? I understand that if there is someone coming at you and you don't know whether you can get past that player, then you can dump the puck, pass it or shoot. But if not, then hold on to the puck, skate forward, create a chance.

Why would you want to dump the puck and then chase after it and crash into the boards? I don't know. But that's just my opinion.

Hopefully Semin will realize that with the teammates he has, sometimes dumping the puck in and gaining numbers will lead to more scoring chances than taking the skating lane and ending up 1-on-3. In my opinion, Semin has the potential to equal, if not surpass, Alex Ovechkin. Oddly enough, all it seems is missing is the ability to simplify his game and exercise a small amount of restraint.

Will we see Super Semin, or the Toe Drag Monster?

Thoughts on the Game: Columbus, 11/1

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Ovie's 'hurt' and everyone is worries it's serious. Serious would be if he didn't get up after he fell, or if he was slumped over on his way back to the bench. Serious is not coming back to the bench, waving both arms like a bird and wearing a suit after the game. Ovie will miss MAYBE 1 game. My bet is we see him in all his Ovieness on Wednesday.

To the notes!

-I'm not sure I've heard the Phone Booth go from 'Fedorov scores in Game 7' loud to 'Pittsburgh goes up 4-0' quiet so quickly.

-The Knuble/Laing "I bet I can keep the puck pinned to the boards behind your goalie for 2 minutes" PK was a thing of beauty. Caps fans are smart enough to know when they see hard work and rewarded the PK unit with a deserved ovation.

-Q was his typical Q: nice layed-out shot block and a prettier 'putting in the garbage' goal that SHOULD have been the game winner. No, he's not blocking shots like in previous seasons. But if you notice, teams are moving the puck away from the point side that he's playing. His shot blocking is so well known that he's dictating the direction the puck is going. Caps, take note of this and you can eliminate the harder point shots just by putting Q on that side.

-Having Flash back opens things up to interesting line combos. It was nice to see the Bradley/Steckel/Laich line back together, and Semin/Backstrom/Fleischmann put on a passing clinic early on. When Laich moved up to Ovie's spot with Morrison and Knuble, that line became the best.

-A penalty at the end of regulation? A penalty in OT? Same M.O. on the power play and same goal scored twice? Great teams just don't do these things. We're a good team, but not a great one.

-How can you let the puck get to the far side man on the PK? The Caps' defense does a poor job getting into obvious passing lanes, and an even worse job letting the D know when they have a man behind them.

-I think I'm going to stop trashing the Defense. It's getting repeditive. From now on, I'm just going to type 'WTFD' when the defense:

• Loses battles in the corner
• Panics
• Throws the puck away like a hot potato
• Makes passes through the slot
• Loses the race to nearly every loose puck
• Takes dumb penalties
• Skates the puck end to end just to turn it over (coughGreencough...)
  

-Jose, I understand you couldn't do anything about the bad bounce behind the net. It happens. But the fact that it happened earlier in the period and you just lucked out that the puck hit you instead of carroming in front means you should have known not to come out the way you did. Also, getting your stick stuck in the net? Ugh.

-It's come to the point where if Semin and Backstrom can't stop toe dragging and behind the back passing, and Green can't stop going end-to end and then turning the puck over in the corner, I'm going to lose it. Great teams make the simple play. Great teams don't try the highlight reel play.

-Rick Nash is the quietest superstar in the game. He has great hands, exceptional skating ability and a sick shot. And, unlike a lot of superstars, he's in the first PK unit fot the Jackets.

-Speaking of Nash, I'm not sure who looked worse on his goal: Green who looked like he'd forgotten how to transition from forward to backward or Theodore, who simply fell down.