One C, Two C, Red C, Blue C

There have been quite a few hot-topic discussions this summer among Caps fans, but it seems that none inspires the most heated debates as: who is the team’s 2nd line center for the 2010-11 season? We’ve all conjectured about Fleischmann, Johansson, Perreault, Laich, and a number of free agent possibilities who could fill the void. For a second, I’d like to ask another question on a similar subject:


Who will be the team’s 3rd line center?

With yesterday’s reports that the Caps will be re-signing center Eric Belanger, the issue popped back up again. The Washington Post’s Katie Carrera put the issue out there yesterday:

Belanger's return will certainly make it an interesting battle for among a group of players potentially including Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich, David Steckel, Boyd Gordon, Fleischmann and Mathieu Perreault for ice time behind top-line center Nicklas Backstrom

Yikes. That's more 'C's than 'Ciccarelli and 'Ciccone' combined!

Ok, so let’s assume (correctly) that Backstrom is the top line center, that the rumors involving trading Flash are true and that Gordon and Steckel will take turns manning the 4th line center duties (as neither showed the offensive side needed to helm the 3rd line role). Let’s also assume Laich will continue to play wing. That would leave Belanger, Johansson and Perreault to fight for the role. Can any of them do it? Sure.

Belanger looks like a 3rd line center to me. Sure, he was running the second line in Minnesota, but none of his linemates there would be 2nd liners for the Washington Capitals and he tends to look tentative; like he's always getting ready to backcheck. Of course, maybe playing a full season with the likes of Alex Semin, Eric Fehr and/or Brooks Laich will turn him into a solid 2C. Over the last 3 seasons, Belanger has had twice as many primary assists (49) than assists of the secondary variety (24). The man can pass.

Perreault fit nicely between Chimera and Fehr for a few games and could assume that same role out of camp. He also possesses the hockey-sense to find the more skilled second liners in open ice, and 2C seems to fit his size and defensive ability more than 3C. If he’s managed to improve his face offs and defensive play, either pivot position would fit him.

As for Johansson, obviously none of us can say who he’ll work best with at the NHL level. He seems like a skilled, play-making center with some grit who could fill in at either 2C or 3C. Only time will tell what kind of center he really is. I know the Caps are very high on him, but the Caps have been very high on players that didn't fit their roles in the past.

None of these questions can be answered until the conjectured signings and trades actually happen, and until the fight for the spot commences at training camp. Until then, Caps fans will be left debating.

Of course, maybe GMGM is looking at trading Flash to make room for Peter Forsberg. Then this discussion is moot...

Gone in a...

Earlier today, it was reported by various Tweeters, Bloggers and Know-it-alls that the Caps were in talks to trade Tomas Fleischmann. @Caps_Girl on Twitter also reported that Fleischmann was no longer listed on the Washington Capitals.com official roster, which was quickly updated to add him back.

Now I think the Caps website people are going the extra length to say "Look over here! See, he's still here! Please don't yell at us George!" When I got onto the site a few minutes ago, this was the background that greeted me:

Awesome. There's sneaky little Flash, pinching in from the right side. (Ok, I know that the Caps site rotates through backgrounds and this was just luck, but it was still pretty amusing.)

...In A Flash

I think it's safe to say that there are two Washington Capitals players that confuse and frustrate fans more than any others: Tomas Fleischmann and Eric Fehr (sorry #28, we all know you're an enigma). At times, they look like scoring machines, capable of playing top 6 forward minutes and producing. Other times, they look lost, afraid of contact and of defensive responsibility. And why is one the Favorite Son while they other is the Whipping Boy?

So which is it? Are they truly skilled players in need of that... something. Or are they products of a system that produces offense? Today, we'll take a look at #14's goals and see if we can tell.

As with all these analyses, we'll break down Flash's goals into categories. They are:

1. Skill goals created by offensive zone play/turn overs/face off wins
2. Goals from offensive rushes/breakaways
3. Crease work/tap-ins/rebounds/redirections

Unlike some of his more skilled teammates (and perhaps due to his 2nd and 3rd line minutes with more grinding linemates), 11 of Felischmann's 23 goals came from working in the offensive zone. Another 8 goals were scored by going hard to the net and either redirecting pucks, tapping in cross-crease passes or Knubling pucks into the net. Only 4 of last season's goals came on transition plays or breakaways. We've seen Tomas score some elite level skill and speed goals in his Caps career (his nickname used to fit), but the majority of last season's goals weren't of that variety.

After watching all of Fleischmann's goals, the first thing I noticed was was his release. There is NO hesitation on Flash's wrist shot, no wind up; he receives the puck and in one motion the shot is off (I'm reminded of Paul Kariya in his goal scoring prime). With the 2nd highest shooting % on the team, Flash was clearly picking his spots well. The second, and perhaps more important thing I saw was his positioning. On many of his offensive zone goals, Fleischmann managed to get into open ice and put himself in position for a good pass. He forechecked well, wasn't afraid to skate out of the corners and went to the places goals scorers go. That's instinct, and that will lead to more goals.

Fleischmann missed the first 11 games of the season and returned to score 7 goals in his first 9 games. But in his remaining 60 games, he managed to score only 16 goals more goals (and none in his last 7 games, including playoffs). Perhaps those Olympic games wore down poor Tomas, after not being able to participate in training camp?

2010-11 should answer quite a few questions about Tomas Fleischmann: Is he a legitimate 25+ goal, 55+ point producer? Can he fill the role of 2nd line center? Can he gain the consistency his game has been lacking in his previous seasons? Does he deserve the high praise his coach heaps onto him?

I guess we'll see.

Doubting Tomas?

$2.6M is now the going rate for a 23 Goal, 50 Point player.

Well, actually, it's pretty close to the going rate for such a player. There are currently 17 NHL forwards (other than Fleischmann) making between $2.5-3M per season (via http://www.nhlnumbers.com/). Using just their peak performances (most goals and points in a season, not necessarily the same season), their collective averages are 24.4 goals and 52.1 points. If you narrow the list down to players under 30 (7 total players), the averages are 23.6 goals and 47.1 points. Tomas Fleischmann's best numbers happened last season, with 23 goals and 51 points, which are pretty consistent with his salary peers.

As the under-30 players have longer careers ahead of them, it's reasonable to expect at least some of them to improve on their career numbers. If these players grow into the same kinds of contributers as their 30+ counterparts are, you're looking at career average highs of 24.9 goals and 55.5 points. Not a hugh improvement, but an improvement none the less.

And if you consider that only one 30+ player put up their career numbers prior to turning 27 (Sergei Samsonov, 22-23 years old), there is a good chance we haven't seen the best Tomas Fleischmann has to offer. Hopefully.