Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Doubting Tomas?

$2.6M is now the going rate for a 23 Goal, 50 Point player.

Well, actually, it's pretty close to the going rate for such a player. There are currently 17 NHL forwards (other than Fleischmann) making between $2.5-3M per season (via Using just their peak performances (most goals and points in a season, not necessarily the same season), their collective averages are 24.4 goals and 52.1 points. If you narrow the list down to players under 30 (7 total players), the averages are 23.6 goals and 47.1 points. Tomas Fleischmann's best numbers happened last season, with 23 goals and 51 points, which are pretty consistent with his salary peers.

As the under-30 players have longer careers ahead of them, it's reasonable to expect at least some of them to improve on their career numbers. If these players grow into the same kinds of contributers as their 30+ counterparts are, you're looking at career average highs of 24.9 goals and 55.5 points. Not a hugh improvement, but an improvement none the less.

And if you consider that only one 30+ player put up their career numbers prior to turning 27 (Sergei Samsonov, 22-23 years old), there is a good chance we haven't seen the best Tomas Fleischmann has to offer. Hopefully.

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