Goals (From The Other Side)

So far in the video analyses I've performed on various players from last season, I've stuck with 'goals scored'. For my next video session, I decided to flip things upside-down: I'm looking at every goal scored ON the young Caps goaltending tandem of Semyon Varlamov and Michael Neuvirth. Today, we'll look at Varly.

Varlamov is a reflex goalie. His reaction time is off the charts, as is his lateral movement. He was criticized early on in his career for having a wear glove hand, but those feelings seemed to subside as last season progressed. So how does Varly get beat? Are the goals put past him his fault, or is his defense leaving him out to dry. Let's look at the tape!

I had to come up with a variety of categories to describe how pucks got past Semyon: Location of the shot, whether the shot came off a rebound, was redirected or whether Varly was screened.

Looking at location, this is what I found:

High Blocker - 14
Low Blocker - 16
High Glove - 15
Low Glove - 4
5 Hole - 6
Other (Varly down and out, on his back, etc) - 10

As for the other factors, I found Varly popped out a bad rebound 7 times, was screened on 11 goals and 7 goals came off deflections or redirections in front.

So what does this mean? While Varly is vulnerable to shots high glove, most of the goals against of that variety came off a good, hard shot rather than some misplay by Varlamov. The majority of his goals against last season found their way in on his blocker side, several of which came from areas of the ice where a shot to that side is a relatively routine save. Coach Boudreau's reactions to those goals should speak volumes to their lack of difficulty to stop.

Varly's athleticism often has him driving laterally from one side of the crease to the other, so rebounds or redirections back to the other side frequently leave him down and out in his net. It also doesn't help that on a number of goals, his defensemen either screened his view of the shot, or knocked the puck in their selves. It's encouraging that so few of Varly's goals against came from rebounds, as it shows his rebound control to be fairly solid.

Overall, Varly had a relatively solid season. With some attention to certain areas of his game, his stats this coming season could be excellent. Hopefully the defensive corps around him can help eliminate some of the need for him to have to make so many highlight reel type saves.

Shots

This weekend, I had the honor of helping out at the Leap Towards a Cure Tournament/Event held at The Gardens Ice House in Laurel, MD. Before I go on, I’d like to commend everyone who helped organize or contributed to the event, as it was a spectacular tribute to our dear Mrs. 'Froggy' Henderson.

 

Last Christmas, I was given a radar gun by my father-in-law (thanks Marty!) which I’ve used several times in coaching. It’s proven especially helpful in teaching little kids about the differences between wrist, snap and slapshots (because EVERY kid wants to take slapshots). On Saturday, the gun became part of a fun game of one-up-manship between just about every hockey player in the state of Maryland.

 

I got to sit myself down behind a regulation-sized net while dozens of adult league players, and quite a few kids, shot hundreds of roller hockey pucks my way while I clocked them.

 

45
60
55
72
26

 

The shots came in all shapes and sizes (and velocities). There were some old, wooden Sherwood PMP 5030 sticks (Paul Coffey pattern, of course) at the station and nearly everyone who used one went running to their car for their own expensive composite sticks, convinced that they ‘can shoot harder than 52!’ A goalie showed up and, using one of the old wooden sticks, fired one 83mph… I unofficially declare him the winner. Alas, the best anyone in attendance could manage was 84mph (with a roller hockey puck, which is ~4mph higher than an NHL puck).

 

84

 

Which got me thinking about those NHL players who can fire the puck over 100mph and the players that block those shots. I’ve been hit with pucks fired from some of these adult beer league players and they definitely hurt. Those shots are in the low 80s. Adding 20mph to that, I can’t imagine doing what a shot-blocking NHL player does. It’s insane. I know they get paid well for it, but still.

 

So cheer when someone slides all-out to block a shot. It’s probably a lot harder than you think.

 

It's All In The Wrists

For my money, Alex Semin possesses the hardest, most deceptive wrist shot in the NHL today. Most of the time he shoots off the wrong foot in such a way that the release point completely fools opposing goalies (and shot blocking defenders). He can release the shot in traffic, circling out of either corner, or while simply standing still. He’s even managed to score with the shot while on his knees!

Joe Sakic is renowned for having one of the greatest wrist shots in the game. From his 5’11” frame, he was able to generate immense amounts of torque and snap his wrists in such a way that his wrist shot was as hard as some players’ slap shots. Sakic’s shot was usually a normal, correct foot wrist shot delivered with loads of power.

But in today’s NHL, I honestly can’t find another hockey player to compare Semin’s wrist shot motion to. I had to cross the lines of sport into baseball to find his equal: San Francisco Giants’ pitcher Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has an odd delivery that relies heavily on applying torque to his core and uncoiling to generate arm speed. In an excellent Sports Illustrated piece, his motion is called “an engineering marvel,” a description that fits Semin’s wrist shot perfectly. Lincecum himself says that when he uncoils, “[my arm] is just kind of along for the ride." Like Lincicum, the uncoiling of Semin’s core muscles help generate arm speed for his shot such that Semin’s wrist shot velocity is off the charts without relying heavily on his arm strength.

I’ll use Semin’s 2nd goal against Ottawa as an example.

Semin circles out of the right-side corner with his weight on his left skate, striding forward. His upper body, hips and stick blade are already facing the net.

Semin doesn’t move his hands backward as he moves toward the net, tipping off his shot. Rather, he leaves his hands, stick and puck where they were in the previous frame (use the face-off circle as a reference) and skates past them.

Semin completes his stride, with his weight on his right skate, and has begun to push off with his left skate. His hands and hips are still in the same position they were in the previous frame. As a result, his trunk has already begun to torque in a clockwise direction.

Semin’s hands are STILL in the same position as they were two frames ago. He has completed the stride with the left foot and the torque on his upper body is now very noticeable.

Semin’s hands have moved slightly forward but the twist to his upper body has increased. His left leg has kicked back in order to allow for the increased torque and to begin the shot. Semin’s left leg will act as a counter-balance for the shot.

Semin’s hands have begun to move forward as his leg has begun to kick forward. His hips have opened up slightly to the left, applying additional torque to his core. At this point, Semin’s motion closely resembles that of a trebuchet.

Semin now rises up out of the shot, uncorking his upper body in a counterclockwise motion. His hands have moved closer to his body in order to put more weight into flexing his stick. His left leg has kicked out and to the left to simulate the weight transfer that would occur with a normal (correct leg) wrist shot.

Semin’s upper body continues to uncoil, his hands now moving forward to catch up. His right elbow is now bent to provide support for the flexing of his stick, now very apparent. His left leg continues to kick outward.

The shot is released as Semin’s upper body finally catches up to his hips. His hands are now moving forward and into the shot while his left leg has started to return to the ice. He has snapped his wrists to provide some extra pep to the puck. Notice the Ottawa defender leaning to the left for the shot block. A normal wrist shot would pull Semin’s body such that the shot would go off to the left. This wrist shot allows Semin to keep his body open and shoot short-side.

Semin completes his follow-through towards the net. His top (left) hand has kicked in towards his body to act as a fulcrum for the shot. The puck is already half the distance to the net. Notice the goalie has already begun to drop into the butterfly.

Semin is now through with the shot and is waiting to celebrate watching for a rebound. The release of the shot is so unpredictable that the Ottawa goalie has left his blocker high, thinking the shot is going to that side. Unfortunately for him, the puck can be seen just over his shoulder, to the right, entering the net.

Clearly, Alex Semin’s wrist shot is not his only way to score. His slap shot against Boston’s Tim Thomas from a few years ago, one-foot backhand against Pittsburgh’s Fleury last season and double toe-drag against Philadelphia this season come to mind. But this season, we’ve been witness to a wrist shot that places Semin in a league of his own. Hopefully he's found something with it, as he's used it to score more goals in the last few games before the break. I guess we'll find out in March.

A Job

Ok, for anyone that reads this: I have a job for you. For tonight's game, mark the location of each shot on goal. Take notes on how shots were taken (screens, tips, cross-ice passes, breakaways, odd-mad situations, etc) and which ones went in for whatever game you're watching. Use different colors for each team. I want to try to build a set for different goalies' tendencies. For anything longer than 3/4 ice, just put a generic marker of where it came from. (Click the link to see the large image) Have fun!

Defensive Zone Ratings for Goalies?

During the summer, like many of us, I'm an occasional fan of baseball (occasional because the area's teams only occasionally win). Baseball is renowned for it's statistical analysis of the game (see: Moneyball, SABRmetrics), affecting everything from draft strategy to stolen bases to intentional walks. One of the more recent developments in this statistical analysis are the various Defensive Rating systems.

In the past, attempting to quantify a certain player's defensive ability with respect to his peers was difficult at best: it required that you analyze every defensive chance for every player in every game played. You have to analyze starting position, distance traveled, whether the ball was caught for or turned into an out. In the end you could theoretically say that on a given play, a certain player should or shouldn't have gotten to a ball based on the performance of every one else at his position.

Could something like this work for NHL goalies? I say yes.

You'd have to anaylze every shot on goal on every goalie in the NHL for distance, angle, whether the goalie had to move laterally to react to the puck, whether the goalie was screened, whether the puck was deflected or any subsequent shots or goals resulted from rebounds. Then you'd have to group all shots of similar types together and determine the save percentage for each catergory. Then you could determine which goalies make saves they shouldn't, and which ones let in goals that most of their peers would stop.

This type of analysis would be more beneficial to goalies than a generic Save % number (which doesn't take into account the difficulty of certain saves or a goalie's performance in spite of his defense). It would identify areas for a particular goalie to work on to bring his ability up that that of his peers.

Now all I need is video of every shot on goal in the league...