30 > 40?

Michael Neuvirth already has a pretty impressive professional hockey resume: two Calder Cups, a Calder Cup MVP award, an 11-5-0 NHL record and .910 save%. This coming season, he looks to vie for playing time against fellow youngster Semyon Varlamov. Despite displaying two dramatically different goaltending styles, both have managed to work their way into a 1/1A goalie tandem.

In my previous analysis, we've already seen that Varly was susceptible to goals on the blocker side last season. But just how did the 40 goals Neuvy surrendered last season go in. Once again, we head to the video.

Using the same categories to describe how pucks got past Michael as I did with Semyon (location of the shot, whether the shot came off a rebound, was redirected or whether Michael was screened) here's the breakdown:

High Blocker - 6

Low Blocker - 9

High Glove - 5

Low Glove - 5

5 Hole - 9

Other (down and out, on his back, etc) - 6

As for the other factors, I found Neuvirth popped out a bad rebound 10 times, was screened on 7 goals and 5 goals came off deflections or redirections in front (one of which Semin knocked in after a big save by Neuvy).

What's obvious right from the start is that the 5 hole goals are concerning for a butterfly goalie. Neuvy managed to get square to the shooter on almost every one of these goals, but wasn't able to close himself up quickly enough to prevent the squeaker (most of them managed to hit the inside of his pads before going in). Neuvirth also had a tendency to pop out rebounds to the middle, leading to quite a few goals against. At Hershey, his rebound control was quite good, which bodes well for his development at the NHL level.

Neuvy, like Varly, was also vulnerable to blocker-side goals more than on the glove side (15-10). However, those who wish Varly could have Neuvirth's glove hand seem to have something, with only 13% of his goals going in high glove compared to 25% for Varlamov.

Neuvy doesn't have the athleticism or explosiveness of Varlamov. But he is a technically-sound butterfly goalie. He squares himself to the shooter well and the majority of the shots he sees hit him in the body or pads. If the two young goalies can sound up the small holes in their game (and maybe learn something from each other), the Caps could have a very solid last line of defense this season.

Goals (From The Other Side)

So far in the video analyses I've performed on various players from last season, I've stuck with 'goals scored'. For my next video session, I decided to flip things upside-down: I'm looking at every goal scored ON the young Caps goaltending tandem of Semyon Varlamov and Michael Neuvirth. Today, we'll look at Varly.

Varlamov is a reflex goalie. His reaction time is off the charts, as is his lateral movement. He was criticized early on in his career for having a wear glove hand, but those feelings seemed to subside as last season progressed. So how does Varly get beat? Are the goals put past him his fault, or is his defense leaving him out to dry. Let's look at the tape!

I had to come up with a variety of categories to describe how pucks got past Semyon: Location of the shot, whether the shot came off a rebound, was redirected or whether Varly was screened.

Looking at location, this is what I found:

High Blocker - 14
Low Blocker - 16
High Glove - 15
Low Glove - 4
5 Hole - 6
Other (Varly down and out, on his back, etc) - 10

As for the other factors, I found Varly popped out a bad rebound 7 times, was screened on 11 goals and 7 goals came off deflections or redirections in front.

So what does this mean? While Varly is vulnerable to shots high glove, most of the goals against of that variety came off a good, hard shot rather than some misplay by Varlamov. The majority of his goals against last season found their way in on his blocker side, several of which came from areas of the ice where a shot to that side is a relatively routine save. Coach Boudreau's reactions to those goals should speak volumes to their lack of difficulty to stop.

Varly's athleticism often has him driving laterally from one side of the crease to the other, so rebounds or redirections back to the other side frequently leave him down and out in his net. It also doesn't help that on a number of goals, his defensemen either screened his view of the shot, or knocked the puck in their selves. It's encouraging that so few of Varly's goals against came from rebounds, as it shows his rebound control to be fairly solid.

Overall, Varly had a relatively solid season. With some attention to certain areas of his game, his stats this coming season could be excellent. Hopefully the defensive corps around him can help eliminate some of the need for him to have to make so many highlight reel type saves.

We're Making Waffles!

Dear Mr’s Varlamov and Neuvirth,

I have heard recently that your team will be participating in the 2011 NHL Winter Classic outdoor game to be held in Pittsburgh, PA and that, as with previous participants in this annual game, you will be wearing throwback uniforms. As a longtime Caps fan, I have some suggestions to help you bring out the true spirit of the Caps teams’ that wore the jersey of old.

As goaltenders, you have the most flexibility to show your creative side. My first suggestion is that you honor the great Caps goaltenders who wore the Red, White and Blue before you. Please have your blocker pad designed to look like an old-school waffle blocker. It isn't just Mr. Beaupre that succeeded with this look. Mr. Liut did as well. And Mr. Kolzig.

If you're looking for a vintage mask design to borrow, look no further than Don Beaupre. The simple stars, stripes, and Capital Dome mask design is a must. It evokes memories of sprawling glove saves, the Patrick Division and the Capital Centre. You could go with the solid white (we know Varly, 'been there, done that') or the patterns and lines of Kolzig's rookie mask but we're fans of Mr. Beaupre (sorry Pete Peeters people).

But perhaps you're looking for a slightly more modern look. You could honor the great Jim Hrivnak and his futuristic flat-front blocker (ooh! aah!). No matter what, you can't go wrong with anything that makes Caps fans remember Jim Hrivnak fondly.

 

Remember guys, it's all about paying homage to great Caps goalies of the past while being yourselves. The Winter Classic is more about the fans, the retro jerseys and the spirit of the game than it is about beating the snot out of Pittsburgh winning and losing. Have fun with it.

Thanks,
Caps Fans

 

 

New Coat of Paint

In this off-season of trades, free agency and arbitration hearings, there haven't been as many goaltenders changing teams/signing deals as I hoped. I love it when goalies move around, since that means new pads and more importantly, new masks.

With that, here are my suggestions for some new masks for some NHL goalies.

With Jaroslav Halak gone, this paint scheme pretty much sums up Carey Price this coming season.

One thing is for certain: with this mask, Semyon Varlamov will never get hit in the head with a puck...

This mask fits a number of goalies this off season.

Then, of course, there's Antti Niemi's new mask.

A Job

Ok, for anyone that reads this: I have a job for you. For tonight's game, mark the location of each shot on goal. Take notes on how shots were taken (screens, tips, cross-ice passes, breakaways, odd-mad situations, etc) and which ones went in for whatever game you're watching. Use different colors for each team. I want to try to build a set for different goalies' tendencies. For anything longer than 3/4 ice, just put a generic marker of where it came from. (Click the link to see the large image) Have fun!

Defensive Zone Ratings for Goalies?

During the summer, like many of us, I'm an occasional fan of baseball (occasional because the area's teams only occasionally win). Baseball is renowned for it's statistical analysis of the game (see: Moneyball, SABRmetrics), affecting everything from draft strategy to stolen bases to intentional walks. One of the more recent developments in this statistical analysis are the various Defensive Rating systems.

In the past, attempting to quantify a certain player's defensive ability with respect to his peers was difficult at best: it required that you analyze every defensive chance for every player in every game played. You have to analyze starting position, distance traveled, whether the ball was caught for or turned into an out. In the end you could theoretically say that on a given play, a certain player should or shouldn't have gotten to a ball based on the performance of every one else at his position.

Could something like this work for NHL goalies? I say yes.

You'd have to anaylze every shot on goal on every goalie in the NHL for distance, angle, whether the goalie had to move laterally to react to the puck, whether the goalie was screened, whether the puck was deflected or any subsequent shots or goals resulted from rebounds. Then you'd have to group all shots of similar types together and determine the save percentage for each catergory. Then you could determine which goalies make saves they shouldn't, and which ones let in goals that most of their peers would stop.

This type of analysis would be more beneficial to goalies than a generic Save % number (which doesn't take into account the difficulty of certain saves or a goalie's performance in spite of his defense). It would identify areas for a particular goalie to work on to bring his ability up that that of his peers.

Now all I need is video of every shot on goal in the league...