Friday, July 23, 2010

Is Mike Green the New Kevin Hatcher?

As former Caps offensive defenseman Kevin Hatcher gets ready to join the US Hockey Hall of Fame, I got to wondering how he compares to our current star offensive defenseman, Mike Green.

As Mike only has 4 full NHL seasons under his belt, I decided to start with his first full season and use Hatcher's seasons at the same age (so age 21-24).

MIKE GREEN
SEASON
AGE
GP
G
A
PTS
2006-2007
21
70
2
10
12
2007-2008
22
82
18
38
56
2008-2009
23
68
31
42
73
2009-2010
24
75
19
57
76
295
70
147
217

KEVIN HATCHER
SEASON
AGE
GP
G
A
PTS
1987-1988
21
71
14
27
41
1988-1989
22
62
13
27
40
1989-1990
23
80
13
41
54
1990-1991
24
79
24
50
74
292
64
145
209

Obviously, Mike's rookie season point totals don't compare to anything he's produced since then, but as far as development goes, it's important. From age 21 on, Hatcher is the more consistent of the two in offensive productivity. But even with a slow rookie season, Green manages to out-produce Hatcher (+6G, +2A in only 3 more games). It's also interesting to note that something important occurred after the 1989-1990 season that may have directly led to Hatcher's 20 point increase: the departure of top defender, Scott Stevens.

But Mike is THE man on the back line in DC these days and has been for 3 seasons. The big question is, what kind of production can we expect from him in the coming seasons? Let's take a look at Hatcher's age 25-27 seasons (his last 3 in a Caps jersey):


HATCHER (NEXT 3 SEASONS)
SEASON
AGE
GP
G
A
PTS
1991-1992
25
79
17
37
54
1992-1993
26
83
34
45
79
1993-1994
27
72
16
24
40
234
67
106
173

Looking at Hatcher's next 3 season brings his 34 goal season into play (the same season Al Iafrate and Sylvain Cote also netted 20+ goals), which led all defenders. But that same season, Hatcher  also led in league in goals against while he was on the ice (162) while only managing to be the 7th most productive defenseman in the league. Kevin's goals seemed to come at the expense of his defense, something Green critics often point out.

In the end, it's really no contest. Kevin Hatcher was never considered the best defenseman in the league while Mike Green has done plenty to strengthen his case as the best. Mike Green has already led the league in goals and points by a defenseman for two consecutive seasons. As his maturity and understanding of the position increase (and all signs indicate that NHL defenders take some time to fully grow into the position, especially defensively) we could see some impressive offensive numbers for Mike in the coming seasons (and hopefully some on the defensive end as well).

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